105 
WTPZ35 KNHC 172343
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
600 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
 
...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 94.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later 
tonight.  Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the 
progress of Erick.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 94.6 West.  Erick is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A northwestward
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Erick is
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night
and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early
Wednesday.  Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane
strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday
night and Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to
16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8
inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane
watch area on Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
 
STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico in a day or so.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci