000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310405
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Alvin is centered near 19.1N 109.1W, or about 
230 nm S of the southern tip of Baja California at 31/0300 UTC,
moving north at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
Peak seas are currently at 15 ft (4.5 M). Alvin is currently 
being impacted by strong upper-level southerly winds and
intrusion of dry air. Latest satellite imagery shows the center 
displaced to the south of an area of numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection seen north of 20N to inland Mexico 
between 106W and 110W. Alvin is forecast to acquire slower 
north- northwestward or northward motion during the next day or 
two. 

Alvin is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near 20.3N 
109.3W Sat morning, then weaken further to a remnant low a
near 21.7N 109.4W Sat evening, move to near 23.0N 109.4W Sun 
morning and dissipate Sun evening.

Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of 
west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja 
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Alvin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 11N95W to 10N105W 
to 08N120W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues 
to 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 04N to 10N between 83W-91W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 103W-115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Alvin.

High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern over 
the waters not affected by Alvin. The associated gradient is
allowing for light to gentle NE to N winds across the Baja 
California offshore waters. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft 
in NW swell, except for higher seas of 7 to 11 ft in SE swell 
S of Cabo San Lazaro due to Alvin. 

In the Gulf of California, light and variable are present across
just about the entire Gulf except in the central portion where
gentle SE to S winds exist. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf,
except for higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in SE to S swell over the 
southern portion.

An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen from 10N to 20N between 100W and 105W.

For the forecast, aside from impacts due to Tropical Storm 
Alvin, gentle to moderate winds will prevail offshore of Baja 
California and southern Mexico through this weekend. Looking 
ahead, an area of low pressure could form by the middle part of 
next week offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some 
development of this system thereafter while it moves generally 
westward to west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the Papagayo region
along with seas 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Otherwise, mostly 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon 
trough while light gentle to moderate E to SE winds are north 
of the trough. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period S to SW swell
continue over the these waters, except for higher seas of
6 to 9 ft in S to SW swell offshore the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, light to gentle E to SE winds will remain 
N of the monsoon trough while moderate S to SW winds will 
continue S of the through the weekend. Long-period SW swell will
propagate through the equatorial waters this weekend inducing 
rough seas offshore of Ecuador, highest being south of the 
Galapagos Islands. Seas will subside early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Please see the Special Features section above for information
relating to Tropical Storm. Alvin.

High pressure that is anchored by a 1028 mb high center near 
31N140W continues to be in control of the wind regime pattern 
over this part of the area, namely N of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure 
in the monsoon trough/ITCZ region is supporting fresh N to NE 
winds N of the ITCZ W of about 125W. Seas with these winds are 6 
to 8 ft in combined wind generated waves and long-period NW to N 
swell. 

Latest altimeter satellite data passes show seas of 8 to 9 ft
south of about 10N between 100W and 130W due to cross-equatorial
long-period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh N to NE winds will
change little through the weekend, however, model guidance 
suggests that these winds may expand eastward some early next
week as high pressure N of the area strengthens. The current 
6 to 8 ft seas with these winds are expected to build some
early next week. The S to SW cross-equatorail swell that is 
over a portion of the central waters is forecast to continue 
to advance across toward the western sections of the Mexican
offshore waters during the weekend before subsiding.

$$
Aguirre