000
WTPZ21 KNHC 202043
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062003
2100Z SUN JUL 20 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 123.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 123.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.9N 127.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 130.2W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 132.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.5N 138.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 143.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.5N 148.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 123.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH